Q4 LOOKS MORE VOLATILE IN THE UNITED STATES 3/3

This stagflationary cocktail (stubborn core inflation, visible rate pass-through, and early labor market weakness) is immediately exacerbated by the U.S. government shutdown, which suspends the publication of crucial economic statistics and injects pervasive uncertainty into investment decisions. While recession risks argue for lower yields, the structural supply factors combined with persistent inflation pressures mean long-term rates remain in a high fluctuation band, complicating the outlook for capital preservation and growth.