POSSIBLE TURNING POINT FOR THE NIKKEI 3/3

19 Sep

POSSIBLE TURNING POINT FOR THE NIKKEI 3/3

The Japanese bond market has seen a paradigm shift following the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) formal end to yield curve control. This has allowed the yield on the 10-year government bond (JGB) to become more volatile and reflect economic fundamentals, but the market remains largely unattractive for foreign investors. The yields on offer are still significantly lower than those in other major economies, and the prohibitive cost of currency hedging often results in a negative overall return.

Key Points

  • Slowdown in Households are spending, but businesses are hesitant
  • Slowdown likely until the end of the year
  • Composite PMI supported by services PMI
  • Resilient consumption supported by wages
  • Inflation weakens slightly but remains too high
  • No BoJ rate hike before 2026
  • The bond market remains unattractive
  • Interest rate differentials favorable to the yen
  • Possible turning point for the Nikkei