POSSIBLE TURNING POINT FOR THE NIKKEI 2/3

17 Sep

POSSIBLE TURNING POINT FOR THE NIKKEI 2/3

The latest PMI leading indicators reveal a two-speed economy with uncertain momentum. While the composite PMI remains in expansionary territory, this performance is driven by the solid services sector, which acts as the main engine of activity. In contrast, the manufacturing sector remains in contraction territory, a weakness corroborated by a persistent decline in industrial production. This highlights the precariousness of the current recovery, which relies on a single pillar of strength.

Key Points

  • Slowdown in Households are spending, but businesses are hesitant
  • Slowdown likely until the end of the year
  • Composite PMI supported by services PMI
  • Resilient consumption supported by wages
  • Inflation weakens slightly but remains too high
  • No BoJ rate hike before 2026
  • The bond market remains unattractive
  • Interest rate differentials favorable to the yen
  • Possible turning point for the Nikkei