Bearbull Global Investments

POSSIBLE TURNING POINT FOR THE NIKKEI 1/3

15 Sep

POSSIBLE TURNING POINT FOR THE NIKKEI 1/3

Posted by BearBull Group In Investment Insight 0 comment

Japan's economy showed unexpected resilience in the second quarter of 2025, posting a robust performance that surpassed most forecasts. The primary driver of this growth was strong private consumption, which exceeded initial estimates and demonstrated a surprising dynamism within households. This momentum suggests that government measures and improving real wages are having a tangible positive effect on consumer behavior.

Key Points

  • Slowdown in Households are spending, but businesses are hesitant
  • Slowdown likely until the end of the year
  • Composite PMI supported by services PMI
  • Resilient consumption supported by wages
  • Inflation weakens slightly but remains too high
  • No BoJ rate hike before 2026
  • The bond market remains unattractive
  • Interest rate differentials favorable to the yen
  • Possible turning point for the Nikkei
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