THE SNB COULD ALREADY GO NEGATIVE IN JUNE 3/3

20 Jul

THE SNB COULD ALREADY GO NEGATIVE IN JUNE 3/3

Swiss government long-term yields are once again approaching zero. Our previous expectation for a policy rate cut to 0.25% has been surpassed, with a potential cut to 0% now being considered by the SNB for its upcoming meeting, which will push long-term yields lower. This move is a clear signal from the central bank's concern over persistent deflationary pressures.

Key Points

  • A surprisingly robust first quarter for the GDP
  • High risks of growth slowing in Q2
  • More nuanced and contrasting leading indicators
  • CPI and PPI indices point to deflation
  • SNB could move into negative rates in June
  • SNB may trigger weakening of the franc
  • Long-term yields approach zero again
  • Growing risks for Swiss equities