REDUCED OUTLOOK FOR JAPANESE ASSETS 2/3

11 Jun

REDUCED OUTLOOK FOR JAPANESE ASSETS 2/3

Leading indicators for the Japanese economy in Q2 2025 present a mixed and uneven picture, suggesting a moderate and uneven growth trajectory. The services sector is showing signs of resilience but with a notable slowdown in its expansion, while the manufacturing sector remains in contraction for the eleventh consecutive month. The composite PMI for May 2025 fell slightly to 50.2, indicating a moderation in overall private sector growth, with new orders continuing to show weakness due to the impact of US tariffs.

Key Points

  • Slowdown in consumption and exports in Q1
  • Uncertainty remains high for Q2
  • Leading indicators still mixed
  • Consumption resilient but still cautious
  • Inflation weakens slightly but remains high
  • BoJ unlikely to touch rates in 2025
  • 10-year yields stall at 1.5%
  • Yen likely to strengthen against the dollar
  • The Nikkei’s rebound is now likely to run out of steam