Bearbull Investment Insight – Flash note – Japan 3/3

14 Mar

Bearbull Investment Insight – Flash note – Japan 3/3

Japanese government bond yields are continuing their upward trajectory, recently reaching levels not observed in over two decades. The gradual increase from -0.25% in 2019 accelerated significantly after the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) initial policy shift in January 2024. This trend has pushed 10-year yields from 0.8% at the end of September 2024 to a peak of 1.46% in February 2025, a level last seen in 2009.

Key Points

  • Strong Japanese economic recovery supported by rising exports
  • First quarter of 2025 likely to be solid
  • Leading indicators supported by services
  • Consumption resilient but still cautious
  • Inflation rebounds to +4% again
  • BoJ to raise key rates again in March
  • 10-year yields approach 1.5%
  • Yen-friendly yield differential
  • Nikkei likely to consolidate