Bearbull Investment Insight – Flash note – Japan 2/3

12 Mar

Bearbull Investment Insight – Flash note – Japan 2/3

Leading indicators present a mixed but overall positive picture, primarily driven by the services sector. The Manufacturing PMI remained weak at 48.9, marking its eighth month of contraction. Conversely, the services sector showed strong expansion with a robust January reading of 53.1. The Composite PMI, largely underpinned by services, stands at an encouraging 51.6, signaling continued economic growth.

Key Points

  • Strong Japanese economic recovery supported by rising exports
  • First quarter of 2025 likely to be solid
  • Leading indicators supported by services
  • Consumption resilient but still cautious
  • Inflation rebounds to +4% again
  • BoJ to raise key rates again in March
  • 10-year yields approach 1.5%
  • Yen-friendly yield differential
  • Nikkei likely to consolidate