Bearbull Investment Insight – Flash note – Switzerland 3/3

28 Feb

Bearbull Investment Insight – Flash note – Switzerland 3/3

The Swiss franc is poised for a new phase of weakness, particularly against the euro. Despite its traditional role as a safe-haven currency, the SNB’s accommodative monetary policy is a powerful counterbalance. The franc has already met our target of 0.92 against the US dollar, but the more significant movement is expected against the euro. We anticipate the euro will appreciate by around +5% against the franc, potentially reaching parity later this year, breaking the long-standing consolidation around 0.94.

Key Points

  • Swiss growth slows despite resilient household consumption
  • Q1 GDP growth limited to +0.2%
  • Swiss exports slide at the start of year
  • Leading indicators for services still very positive
  • Inflation falls further in January to +0.4% year-on-year
  • SNB to cut rates by a further 0.25% in March
  • Franc now expected to weaken against the euro
  • Reappearance of limited opportunities for Swiss Bonds
  • More attractive outlook for small caps