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THE RISE OF THE YEN THREATENS THE NIKKEI 2/3

31 Aug

THE RISE OF THE YEN THREATENS THE NIKKEI 2/3

Posted by BearBull Group In Macro Research Insights 0 comment

The Composite Leading Indicator reached a multi-year high of 116.5, signaling an acceleration in quarterly GDP growth to +0.2% – +0.4% (+0.8% – +1.2% annualized). Strong Asian tech demand and tourism drove high sentiment in the Tankan survey and Services PMI. This technical rebound confirms the domestic economy successfully emerged from its late-spring slowdown. The pickup in service momentum provides a solid buffer against ongoing volatility in external industrial cycles.

Key Points

  • Slowing momentum for Q2 GDP
  • Q3: Between domestic recovery and external risks
  • Shift in leading indicators
  • Household confidence stabilizing
  • Inflation caught between buffers and input pressures
  • The BoJ’s dilemma and trade-offs in the face of the currency shock
  • Sharp steepening of the yield curve
  • Conditions finally in place for a yen appreciation
  • Mixed outlook for Japanese stocks
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