THE BOE MAINTAINS ITS TIGHT MONETARY POLICY STANCE 2/3

21 Sep

THE BOE MAINTAINS ITS TIGHT MONETARY POLICY STANCE 2/3

The latest survey data confirm a clear rebound in U.K. economic activity following the spring low point. Led by strong demand for technology and financial export services, the services PMI rose to 52.5 in August, lifting the overall composite PMI to 52.5. This composite rebound confirms a scenario of moderate expansion while ruling out a sharp late-2026 economic contraction. Although high financing costs keep construction in a slow stabilization phase at 44.3, public infrastructure spending is helping cushion the real estate sector. Meanwhile, manufacturing held at 51.2 despite elevated energy input costs.

Key Points

  • The ONS confirms growth of +0.4% in Q2 2026
  • Economy avoids contraction despite the shocks
  • Moderate recovery in services PMI
  • Labor market stabilizes at 4.9%
  • Gradual improvement in consumer sentiment
  • Headline CPI inflation picks up again to +3.1% in August
  • BoE maintains strict status quo (3.75%) in a split vote (6-3)
  • Persistent tensions on sovereign yields
  • Interest rate support for the British pound remains
  • Direct real estate stabilizes
  • “Value” profile protection against high interest rates