SHIFT FROM STOCKS TO BONDS IN EUROPE 3/3

30 Sep

SHIFT FROM STOCKS TO BONDS IN EUROPE 3/3

After reaching peaks of uncertainty in Q1, tensions in the Middle East began to ease in May. The 10-year German Bund, the market benchmark, eased to trade around 2.85% after hitting the 3.2% threshold. The deterioration in economic activity in the eurozone contributed to this easing. Faced with the risk of a sharp slowdown and stagflation, investors adjusted their allocations by taking advantage of better yields, particularly on sovereign debt. The European Commission unveiled its financing plan for the second half of the year, which calls for the issuance of 80 billion euros.

Key Points

  • Net rebound in eurozone GDP before summer (+0.4%)
  • Risks of prolonged stagnation as Q4 approaches
  • Leading indicators: fragile stabilization
  • Household confidence undermined by doubts
  • Inflation picks up, driven by PPI
  • The ECB raises rates and adopts a hawkish tone
  • Pressure on rates and rising yields
  • Euro up vs. the Swiss franc, down vs. the dollar
  • Securitized real estate under pressure from rising rates
  • Cautious shift from stocks to bonds