Bearbull Global Investments

SHIFT FROM STOCKS TO BONDS IN EUROPE 1/3

25 Sep

SHIFT FROM STOCKS TO BONDS IN EUROPE 1/3

Posted by BearBull Group In Macro Research Insights 0 comment

Eurozone GDP expanded by a stronger-than-expected +0.4% in the second quarter of 2026, beating the +0.2% consensus forecast. This recovery was anchored by a sharp +3.9% rebound in Ireland alongside strong performance in Spain (+0.7%), while Germany maintained modest growth of +0.2%. The bounce-back provided a key reprieve from earlier recession concerns, bolstered by a revival in household consumption, stable labor market conditions, and a recovery in foreign trade. Furthermore, this quarter-over-quarter acceleration demonstrated the underlying resilience of the European consumer base as real wage gains began to take effect.

Key Points

  • Net rebound in eurozone GDP before summer (+0.4%)
  • Risks of prolonged stagnation as Q4 approaches
  • Leading indicators: fragile stabilization
  • Household confidence undermined by doubts
  • Inflation picks up, driven by PPI
  • The ECB raises rates and adopts a hawkish tone
  • Pressure on rates and rising yields
  • Euro up vs. the Swiss franc, down vs. the dollar
  • Securitized real estate under pressure from rising rates
  • Cautious shift from stocks to bonds
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