RISKS OF DISRUPTION OF GLOBAL AGRICULTURE 1/3

23 Mar

RISKS OF DISRUPTION OF GLOBAL AGRICULTURE 1/3

The March 2026 military escalation in the Middle East has fundamentally redefined the risks facing global supply chains, shifting the focus from energy to agricultural inputs. While the world's attention remains fixed on oil prices, the near-paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a systemic crisis in the fertilizer market. This chokepoint is no longer just an energy artery; it is now the focal point of an imminent agricultural shock that threatens global food security and market stability for the foreseeable future.

Key Points

  • Global fertilizer market held hostage by the Strait of Hormuz
  • Significant asymmetry in dependencies (energy vs. fertilizers)
  • Vulnerability of fertilizer supplies
  • Structure of the global supply chain
  • Pre-crisis overview (2025 – early 2026)
  • The 2026 shock: contagion mechanisms
  • Toward a reshaping of production chains
  • Stock market behavior and macroeconomic risks
  • Forecasts and risks for the 2026 harvests
  • Inevitable return of inflation in H2