Bearbull Private Banking Benchmark UAE - June 2026

21 Aug

Bearbull Private Banking Benchmark UAE – June 2026

Posted by BearBull Group In Bearbull Multi Asset indices 0 comment

A retreat in June but still positive performances YTD

Indices Performances

June YTD

BearBull Private Banking Benchmark « Low Risk » -0.21% +2.80%

BearBull Private Banking Benchmark « Moderate Risk» –0.46% +3.87%

BearBull Private Banking Benchmark « Dynamic Risk » -0.71% +4.94%

Monthly Comments (performances in AED)

The Bearbull Private Banking UAE indices ended the month on a negative note. The low-risk index posted a performance of -0.21%, the moderate-risk strategy followed a similar trajectory, losing -0.46%, and the dynamic-risk approach recorded the sharpest decline in June (-0.71%). Since the beginning of the year, however, the three strategies have recorded positive performances of +2.80%, +3.87%, and +4.94%, respectively. Bond markets diverged this month. The domestic segment advanced by +0.33%, while international bonds ended the month in negative territory (-0.71%). Since the beginning of the year, both segments remain in negative territory, with performances of -1.65% and -0.84%, respectively.

Equity markets are posting largely positive performances this month. The Dubai market leads the way with a performance of +3.44%, followed by Abu Dhabi (+1.06%), while the international market recorded a slight decline of -0.72%. This positive momentum has not been confirmed since January, however, with the Dubai and Abu Dhabi markets both down (-5.22% and -3.50%, respectively) and the international market also in negative territory (-0.57%). The domestic real estate segment recorded the best performance among all asset classes this month, with a gain of +3.41%, while the international segment posted a more modest performance of +0.46%. Over the year as a whole, however, both segments remain in negative territory, with performances of -13.73% for the UAE and -0.16% for international real estate. Commodities fell into negative territory in June (-9.86%), but continued their remarkable upward trend since January (+41.37%). Private equity posted a weak performance in June (-5.37%) and remained down for the year as a whole with a cumulative performance of -21.16%.

Financial market developments (performances in AED)

The passage into the month of June confirms the entrenchment of a global stagflation dynamic that is profoundly altering investors’ perception of risk. While the memorandum of understanding in the Middle East had raised hopes of an immediate positive impact on inflationary risks, economic data and central bank actions raising concerns about risks have reawakened volatility. Market sentiment, until recently immunized by a form of indifference toward geopolitical risks, has shifted into a phase of doubt. The supply shock affecting energy and agricultural commodities is finally beginning to visibly impact corporate profit margins and household purchasing power. Central banks, confronted with consumer price indices that refuse to converge toward their 2% targets, are hardening their tone, forcing a recalibration of asset allocations. The past resilience of equity indices, largely driven by the speculative waves in technology and artificial intelligence, is now being severely tested by the general and mechanical rise in risk premia demanded by investors. The current financial environment is also characterized by a marked deterioration in quantitative risk indicators. While May still showed residual complacency, June marks an inflection point where macroeconomic reality asserts itself. The performance of global equity indices is losing momentum in the face of rising interest rates and the new restrictive positioning of central banks, while international real estate shows highly divergent trajectories depending on the geo-graphic region, reflecting increased stress in the credit segment. Bond markets are now capturing the persistence of inflationary pressures much more adequately, definitively eliminating hopes of a short-term rate cut and readjusting yields upward (the performance of international bonds adjusting to -0.71% in June versus +0.34% in May). Our global risk scores for the equity segment have crossed critical thresholds, validating the need to adopt a defensive wealth management strategy with a high degree of selectivity.

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