Bearbull Global Investments

A SURPRISING START TO THE KEVIN WARSH ERA 3/3

10 Jul

A SURPRISING START TO THE KEVIN WARSH ERA 3/3

Posted by BearBull Group In Investment Insight 0 comment

The US bond market is locked in a direct conflict that tests the resolve of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. While a cooling labor market fuels defensive bond buying due to recession risks, persistent core inflation and a hawkish Fed keep pressure on the long end of the yield curve. This volatility has forced a sharp repricing, sending 10-year Treasury yields from 3.95% in March up to nearly 4.7% in May.

Key Points

  • Economic resilience will fade in Q2
  • The stagflation anticipated for Q2 is materializing
  • The momentum of the services PMI is a cause for concern
  • The job market is weakening and returning to a downward trend
  • The Fed enters a new era under Kevin Warsh
  • Inflation stabilizes at high levels over the summer
  • Rising volatility and bond yields
  • Investors’ sustained enthusiasm for the dollar
  • The surprising paradox of the stock market
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