2026 START VERY UNCERTAIN IN THE UNITED STATES 1/3

The US economy decelerated in Q3, with annualized growth expected between +1.5% and +2.0% following Q2's robust +3.8%. A 43-day federal shutdown significantly disrupted this trajectory, reducing quarterly growth by an estimated 1.2 percentage points according to the CBO. This slowdown reflects a cooling in government spending and a normalization of activity after the artificial investment surge seen earlier in the year.