GDP is expected to fall by -32% in Q2, will not return to 2019 levels before 2022. The Fed systematises yield curve control. End of interest rate volatility. Complacency on equities.
- Annualised GDP contraction of -32% in Q2?
- GDP contraction of -5.5% in 2020 followed by
a +3.9% recovery in 2021
- Sharp rise in budget deficits, debt and the
Fed’s balance sheet
- Towards an institutionalisation of yield curve
control by the Federal Reserve?
- Disappearance of volatility in US interest
- The dollar remains the preferred currency
- -44% collapse in corporate profits in Q2
- Negative impact of a Democratic victory
- Excessive optimism in equity markets